It has become a cliché that the survival of the European Union (EU) depends on its ability to reform, either through enlargement—greater economic and fiscal coordination in the direction of some sort of federal state—or by getting smaller, with the eurozone becoming a true optimum currency area.

Surprisingly enough, most analysts, including leading EU officials, have sided unequivocally with the former proposition.

In a new one-pager, C. J. Polychroniou lays out the likely scenarios for the eurozone going forward and casts a skeptical eye on the idea that the future path will or should involve tighter economic and fiscal coordination.  The most likely scenario, he argues, is the exit of Greece and possibly Portugal from the eurozone—countries that are really struggling as a result of having given up control over monetary policy.

Read the one-pager here.